Eugene Grebenyuk v Tom Griffiths (Thu 03 Sep 2015)
Match won by Eugene Grebenyuk. Result: 9-5,9-3,2-9,9-3.
Starting level for
Eugene Grebenyuk:
195, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Griffiths:
110, level confidence: 60%.
Eugene Grebenyuk to win as he is currently playing
77% better than Tom Griffiths.
Eugene Grebenyuk won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eugene Grebenyuk played
24% better than Tom Griffiths in this match.
As Eugene Grebenyuk has played below his allowed range at 145, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Eugene Grebenyuk would normally have been playing at level 178 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Griffiths played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 10.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eugene Grebenyuk changes to -3.7% and Tom Griffiths changes to +10.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eugene Grebenyuk becomes -3.4% and for Tom Griffiths becomes +6.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Filton 20 Boxes' so the adjustment for Eugene Grebenyuk is -1.7% and for Tom Griffiths is +3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eugene Grebenyuk: 90%, Tom Griffiths: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eugene Grebenyuk: 75%, Tom Griffiths: 64%.
Final level for Eugene Grebenyuk:
192, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tom Griffiths:
114, level confidence: 64%.