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Paul Cousins v Richard Batchelor (Tue 04 Oct 2011)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-7.

Starting level for Paul Cousins: 1,390, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,243, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Cousins to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Richard Batchelor.

Paul Cousins won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 67% better than Richard Batchelor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 1,697 and Richard Batchelor at a level of 1,018. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to +21% and Richard Batchelor changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes +10% and for Richard Batchelor becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is +7.5% and for Richard Batchelor is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 53%, Richard Batchelor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 43%, Richard Batchelor: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Cousins: 1,492, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,200, level confidence: 70%.