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Steven Malduca v Richard Betts (Wed 05 Oct 2011)

Match won by Richard Betts. Result: 10-15,12-15,18-16,15-11,10-15.

Starting level for Steven Malduca: 1,530, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Richard Betts: 2,084, level confidence: 10%.
Richard Betts to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Steven Malduca.

Richard Betts won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Betts played 10% better than Steven Malduca in this match.

As Richard Betts has played below his allowed range at 1,811, his level reduction is 7.4% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Betts would normally have been playing at level 2,021 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Malduca played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Betts changes to -6.3% and Steven Malduca changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Betts becomes -3.5% and for Steven Malduca becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Richard Betts is -2.6% and for Steven Malduca is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Betts: 32%, Steven Malduca: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Betts: 28%, Steven Malduca: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Malduca: 1,540, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Richard Betts: 2,027, level confidence: 28%.