Alan Harris v Mark Slaney (Tue 11 Oct 2011)
Match won by Mark Slaney. Result: 4-15,5-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Alan Harris:
480, level confidence: 27%.
Starting level for
Mark Slaney:
954, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mark Slaney to win as he is currently playing
99% better than Alan Harris.
Mark Slaney won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Slaney played
150% better than Alan Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Slaney actually played at a level of
1,070 and Alan Harris at a level of
428. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 8.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Slaney changes to +2.9% and Alan Harris changes to -8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Slaney becomes +2.9% and for Alan Harris becomes -5.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Mark Slaney is +2.2% and for Alan Harris is -4.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Slaney: 88%, Alan Harris: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Slaney: 79%, Alan Harris: 46%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Harris:
460, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Mark Slaney:
974, level confidence: 79%.