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Robert Brooks v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 11 Oct 2011)

Match won by Paul Scott-Stevens. Result: 9-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,390, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,922, level confidence: 53%.
Paul Scott-Stevens to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Robert Brooks.

Paul Scott-Stevens won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Scott-Stevens played 43% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Scott-Stevens actually played at a level of 1,951 and Robert Brooks at a level of 1,369. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens changes to +1.2% and Robert Brooks changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes +0.9% and for Robert Brooks becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens is +0.7% and for Robert Brooks is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Scott-Stevens: 73%, Robert Brooks: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Scott-Stevens: 72%, Robert Brooks: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,376, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,932, level confidence: 72%.