Graham Evans v Steve Allen (Wed 12 Oct 2011)
Match won by Graham Evans. Result: 15-11,10-15,15-7,16-14.
Starting level for
Graham Evans:
1,855, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Steve Allen:
1,421, level confidence: 30%.
Graham Evans to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Steve Allen.
Graham Evans won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham Evans played
23% better than Steve Allen in this match.
As Graham Evans has played below his allowed range at 1,755, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Graham Evans would normally have been playing at level 1,812 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Allen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham Evans changes to 0% and Steve Allen changes to +1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham Evans becomes -0.1% and for Steve Allen becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Graham Evans is 0% and for Steve Allen is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham Evans: 69%, Steve Allen: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham Evans: 67%, Steve Allen: 53%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Graham Evans:
1,850, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Steve Allen:
1,433, level confidence: 53%.