SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Jane Poynter v Grace Gear (Mon 31 Oct 2011)

Match won by Grace Gear. Result: 4-15,2-15,7-15.

Starting level for Jane Poynter: 198, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Grace Gear: 427, level confidence: 26%.
Grace Gear to win as she is currently playing 116% better than Jane Poynter.

Grace Gear won all of the games and 78% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 246% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grace Gear played 246% better than Jane Poynter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grace Gear actually played at a level of 541 and Jane Poynter at a level of 156. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grace Gear changes to +17% and Jane Poynter changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grace Gear becomes +10% and for Jane Poynter becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Grace Gear is +7.5% and for Jane Poynter is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grace Gear: 51%, Jane Poynter: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grace Gear: 40%, Jane Poynter: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jane Poynter: 189, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Grace Gear: 458, level confidence: 40%.