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Robert Brooks v Tom Dupuy (Tue 01 Nov 2011)

Match won by Robert Brooks. Result: 15-6,15-12,16-14.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,376, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Tom Dupuy: 2,206, level confidence: 57%.
Tom Dupuy to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Robert Brooks.

Robert Brooks won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brooks played 47% better than Tom Dupuy in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Brooks actually played at a level of 2,116 and Tom Dupuy at a level of 1,435. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brooks changes to +36% and Tom Dupuy changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brooks becomes +16.1% and for Tom Dupuy becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Robert Brooks is +12% and for Tom Dupuy is -10.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robert Brooks is limited to +10% and Tom Dupuy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brooks: 80%, Tom Dupuy: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brooks: 52%, Tom Dupuy: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,511, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Tom Dupuy: 2,098, level confidence: 49%.