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Andrew James v Simon Hancock (Wed 02 Nov 2011)

Match won by Simon Hancock. Result: 15-6,10-15,16-18,8-15.

Starting level for Andrew James: 1,281, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Simon Hancock: 1,390, level confidence: 20%.
Simon Hancock to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Andrew James.

Simon Hancock won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Hancock played 20% better than Andrew James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Hancock actually played at a level of 1,462 and Andrew James at a level of 1,218. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Hancock changes to +5% and Andrew James changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Hancock becomes +3.5% and for Andrew James becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Simon Hancock is +2.6% and for Andrew James is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Hancock: 45%, Andrew James: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Hancock: 42%, Andrew James: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew James: 1,267, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Simon Hancock: 1,424, level confidence: 42%.