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Steve Allen v Akin Olunloyo (Wed 02 Nov 2011)

Match won by Steve Allen. Result: 15-13,15-12,5-15,18-16.

Starting level for Steve Allen: 1,433, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,493, level confidence: 54%.
Akin Olunloyo to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Steve Allen.

Steve Allen won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Allen played 15% better than Akin Olunloyo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Allen actually played at a level of 1,568 and Akin Olunloyo at a level of 1,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Allen changes to +9.3% and Akin Olunloyo changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Allen becomes +5.2% and for Akin Olunloyo becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Steve Allen is +3.9% and for Akin Olunloyo is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Allen: 70%, Akin Olunloyo: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Allen: 64%, Akin Olunloyo: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Allen: 1,487, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,440, level confidence: 67%.