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Neil Newbery v Justin Turnpenny (Tue 08 Nov 2011)

Match won by Neil Newbery. Result: 15-4,15-8,14-16,15-7.

Starting level for Neil Newbery: 2,012, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,267, level confidence: 55%.
Neil Newbery to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Justin Turnpenny.

Neil Newbery won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Newbery played 39% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.

In this case, Neil Newbery played at level 1,827 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neil Newbery would normally have been playing at level 1,890 (based on typical behaviour), Justin Turnpenny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Newbery changes to 0% and Justin Turnpenny changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Newbery becomes 0% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Neil Newbery is 0% and for Justin Turnpenny is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Newbery: 86%, Justin Turnpenny: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Newbery: 81%, Justin Turnpenny: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Newbery: 2,009, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,289, level confidence: 69%.