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Anthony Clifford v Tim Seaton (Thu 10 Nov 2011)

Match won by Anthony Clifford. Result: 15-7,10-15,15-11,15-5.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,073, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Tim Seaton: 1,059, level confidence: 61%.
Anthony Clifford to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Tim Seaton.

Anthony Clifford won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Clifford played 32% better than Tim Seaton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Clifford actually played at a level of 1,222 and Tim Seaton at a level of 930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford changes to +13% and Tim Seaton changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford becomes +7.5% and for Tim Seaton becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Anthony Clifford is +5.6% and for Tim Seaton is -6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Clifford: 81%, Tim Seaton: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Clifford: 71%, Tim Seaton: 68%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,132, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tim Seaton: 1,027, level confidence: 68%.