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Jack Fowler v Roshan Chhatralia (Tue 13 Dec 2011)

Match won by Jack Fowler. Result: 15-6,15-10,15-12.

Starting level for Jack Fowler: 3,404, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Roshan Chhatralia: 1,595, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Roshan Chhatralia.

Jack Fowler won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Fowler played 61% better than Roshan Chhatralia in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jack Fowler was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,417 and 3,404 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jack Fowler played at level 2,737 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jack Fowler would normally have been playing at level 2,923 (based on typical behaviour), Roshan Chhatralia played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Fowler changes to 0% and Roshan Chhatralia changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Fowler becomes 0% and for Roshan Chhatralia becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Jack Fowler is 0% and for Roshan Chhatralia is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Fowler: 90%, Roshan Chhatralia: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Fowler: 78%, Roshan Chhatralia: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Fowler: 3,399, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Roshan Chhatralia: 1,630, level confidence: 73%.