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Gus Lyseight v Paul Nanon (Tue 13 Dec 2011)

Match won by Gus Lyseight. Result: 16-14,15-7,15-12.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,815, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Paul Nanon: 1,817, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Paul Nanon to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Gus Lyseight.

Gus Lyseight won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gus Lyseight played 45% better than Paul Nanon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gus Lyseight actually played at a level of 2,183 and Paul Nanon at a level of 1,510. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight changes to +20% and Paul Nanon changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight becomes +8.9% and for Paul Nanon becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Gus Lyseight is +6.7% and for Paul Nanon is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gus Lyseight: 78%, Paul Nanon: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gus Lyseight: 65%, Paul Nanon: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,933, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Nanon: 1,728, level confidence: 73%.