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Gavin McClure v Nick Henderson (Tue 10 Jan 2012)

Match won by Nick Henderson. Result: 5-15,11-15,8-15.

Starting level for Gavin McClure: 712, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Henderson: 1,429, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nick Henderson to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Gavin McClure.

Nick Henderson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Henderson played 88% better than Gavin McClure in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Henderson was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,058 and 1,429 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nick Henderson played at level 1,335 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Gavin McClure is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Henderson: 85%, Gavin McClure: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Henderson: 82%, Gavin McClure: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin McClure: 711, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Nick Henderson: 1,427, level confidence: 82%.