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Steve Allen v Jon McComish (Wed 11 Jan 2012)

Match won by Jon McComish. Result: 16-14,15-13,10-15,4-15,0-15.

Starting level for Steve Allen: 1,404, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Jon McComish: 1,791, level confidence: 36%.
Jon McComish to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Steve Allen.

Jon McComish won 60% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon McComish played 23% better than Steve Allen in this match.

In this case, Jon McComish played at level 1,738 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jon McComish would normally have been playing at level 1,756 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Allen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon McComish changes to 0% and Steve Allen changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon McComish becomes 0% and for Steve Allen becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Jon McComish is 0% and for Steve Allen is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon McComish: 60%, Steve Allen: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon McComish: 59%, Steve Allen: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Allen: 1,407, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jon McComish: 1,788, level confidence: 59%.