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Steven Davies v Tom Power (Thu 12 Jan 2012)

Match won by Tom Power. Result: 11-15,16-14,15-4,8-15,9-15.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 4,251, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Tom Power: 8,952, level confidence: 10%.
Tom Power to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Steven Davies.

Tom Power won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Power played 9% better than Steven Davies in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Power was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,416 and 8,952 without affecting his level.

As Tom Power has played below his allowed range at 5,457, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Power would normally have been playing at level 7,720 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Power changes to -12% and Steven Davies changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Power becomes -3.7% and for Steven Davies becomes +1.7%.

Given Tom Power's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Tom Power is -2.4% and for Steven Davies is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Power: 32%, Steven Davies: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Power: 23%, Steven Davies: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 4,299, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Tom Power: 8,729, level confidence: 23%.