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Laura Seaman v Sophie Reynolds (Mon 16 Jan 2012)

Match won by Laura Seaman. Result: 15-5,15-8,15-11.

Starting level for Laura Seaman: 163, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sophie Reynolds: 132, level confidence: 64%.
Laura Seaman to win as she is currently playing 23% better than Sophie Reynolds.

Laura Seaman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laura Seaman played 88% better than Sophie Reynolds in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Laura Seaman actually played at a level of 201 and Sophie Reynolds at a level of 107. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laura Seaman changes to +17% and Sophie Reynolds changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laura Seaman becomes +9.9% and for Sophie Reynolds becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Laura Seaman is +7.5% and for Sophie Reynolds is -8.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sophie Reynolds is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laura Seaman: 87%, Sophie Reynolds: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laura Seaman: 71%, Sophie Reynolds: 65%.

Final level for Laura Seaman: 175, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Sophie Reynolds: 126, level confidence: 65%.