Laura Seaman v Sophie Reynolds (Mon 16 Jan 2012)
Match won by Laura Seaman. Result: 15-5,15-8,15-11.
Starting level for
Laura Seaman:
163, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sophie Reynolds:
132, level confidence: 64%.
Laura Seaman to win as she is currently playing
23% better than Sophie Reynolds.
Laura Seaman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laura Seaman played
88% better than Sophie Reynolds in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Laura Seaman actually played at a level of
201 and Sophie Reynolds at a level of
107. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laura Seaman changes to +17% and Sophie Reynolds changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laura Seaman becomes +9.9% and for Sophie Reynolds becomes -12%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Laura Seaman is +7.5% and for Sophie Reynolds is -8.4%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sophie Reynolds is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laura Seaman: 87%, Sophie Reynolds: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laura Seaman: 71%, Sophie Reynolds: 65%.
Final level for Laura Seaman:
175, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Sophie Reynolds:
126, level confidence: 65%.