Anne-Maree Dunn v Hilary Birt (Mon 23 Jan 2012)
Match won by Hilary Birt. Result: 13-15,15-17,9-15.
Starting level for
Anne-Maree Dunn:
168, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Hilary Birt:
202, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Hilary Birt to win as she is currently playing
20% better than Anne-Maree Dunn.
Hilary Birt won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hilary Birt played
36% better than Anne-Maree Dunn in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hilary Birt actually played at a level of
215 and Anne-Maree Dunn at a level of
158. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hilary Birt changes to +5.1% and Anne-Maree Dunn changes to -5.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hilary Birt becomes +4% and for Anne-Maree Dunn becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Hilary Birt is +3% and for Anne-Maree Dunn is -3.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hilary Birt: 90%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hilary Birt: 84%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Anne-Maree Dunn:
162, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Hilary Birt:
208, level confidence: 84%.