Janet Lawlor v Lesley Garner (Mon 23 Jan 2012)
Match won by Lesley Garner. Result: 9-15,8-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Janet Lawlor:
140, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Lesley Garner:
320, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Lesley Garner to win as she is currently playing
129% better than Janet Lawlor.
Lesley Garner won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lesley Garner played
88% better than Janet Lawlor in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lesley Garner was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 216 and 320 without affecting her level.
In this case, Lesley Garner played at level 266 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lesley Garner would normally have been playing at level 269 (based on typical behaviour), Janet Lawlor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lesley Garner changes to 0% and Janet Lawlor changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lesley Garner becomes 0% and for Janet Lawlor becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Lesley Garner is 0% and for Janet Lawlor is +0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lesley Garner: 85%, Janet Lawlor: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lesley Garner: 77%, Janet Lawlor: 73%.
Final level for Janet Lawlor:
141, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Lesley Garner:
320, level confidence: 77%.