Gary Wood v Justin Turnpenny (Tue 24 Jan 2012)
Match won by Gary Wood. Result: 15-11,15-5,10-15,15-12.
Starting level for
Gary Wood:
1,195, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Justin Turnpenny:
1,199, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Justin Turnpenny to win as he is currently playing
0% better than Gary Wood.
Gary Wood won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Wood played
26% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Wood actually played at a level of
1,343 and Justin Turnpenny at a level of
1,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Wood changes to +12% and Justin Turnpenny changes to -10.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Wood becomes +7% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes -6.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Gary Wood is +5.3% and for Justin Turnpenny is -4.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Wood: 79%, Justin Turnpenny: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Wood: 70%, Justin Turnpenny: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gary Wood:
1,256, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny:
1,145, level confidence: 76%.