Ian Lennox v Pierre Germishuizen (Tue 31 Jan 2012)
Match won by Pierre Germishuizen. Result: 14-16,12-15,15-9,10-15.
Starting level for
Ian Lennox:
828, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Pierre Germishuizen:
851, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Pierre Germishuizen to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Ian Lennox.
Pierre Germishuizen won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pierre Germishuizen played
19% better than Ian Lennox in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pierre Germishuizen actually played at a level of
917 and Ian Lennox at a level of
768. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pierre Germishuizen changes to +5.2% and Ian Lennox changes to -7.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pierre Germishuizen becomes +4.1% and for Ian Lennox becomes -5.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Pierre Germishuizen is +3.1% and for Ian Lennox is -4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pierre Germishuizen: 91%, Ian Lennox: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pierre Germishuizen: 85%, Ian Lennox: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ian Lennox:
795, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Pierre Germishuizen:
876, level confidence: 85%.