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Carl Noffki v Richard Batchelor (Tue 31 Jan 2012)

Match won by Richard Batchelor. Result: 5-15,15-12,11-15,7-15.

Starting level for Carl Noffki: 1,168, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,225, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Richard Batchelor to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Carl Noffki.

Richard Batchelor won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Batchelor played 33% better than Carl Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Batchelor actually played at a level of 1,381 and Carl Noffki at a level of 1,036. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Batchelor changes to +11% and Carl Noffki changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Batchelor becomes +6.6% and for Carl Noffki becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Richard Batchelor is +4.9% and for Carl Noffki is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Batchelor: 84%, Carl Noffki: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Batchelor: 75%, Carl Noffki: 72%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carl Noffki: 1,137, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,283, level confidence: 75%.