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Craig Perry v James Armstrong (Wed 01 Feb 2012)

Match won by James Armstrong. Result: 6-15,9-15,15-12,14-16.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,532, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,550, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
James Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Craig Perry.

James Armstrong won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Armstrong played 27% better than Craig Perry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Armstrong actually played at a level of 1,738 and Craig Perry at a level of 1,366. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Armstrong changes to +12% and Craig Perry changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Armstrong becomes +6% and for Craig Perry becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for James Armstrong is +4.5% and for Craig Perry is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Armstrong: 87%, Craig Perry: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Armstrong: 78%, Craig Perry: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 1,462, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for James Armstrong: 1,618, level confidence: 78%.