Alan Cook v Jeff Hobden (Thu 23 Feb 2012)
Match won by Alan Cook. Result: 7-15,15-12,15-5,15-6.
Starting level for
Alan Cook:
1,721, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Jeff Hobden:
1,533, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Alan Cook to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Jeff Hobden.
Alan Cook won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Cook played
29% better than Jeff Hobden in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Cook actually played at a level of
1,844 and Jeff Hobden at a level of
1,431. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Cook changes to +6.7% and Jeff Hobden changes to -5.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Cook becomes +3.9% and for Jeff Hobden becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Alan Cook is +2.9% and for Jeff Hobden is -2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Cook: 79%, Jeff Hobden: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Cook: 74%, Jeff Hobden: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Cook:
1,769, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden:
1,491, level confidence: 81%.