Guy Hessing v Richard Moody (Thu 23 Feb 2012)
Match won by Guy Hessing. Result: 15-3,15-11,15-11.
Starting level for
Guy Hessing:
1,169, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Richard Moody:
989, level confidence: 20%.
Guy Hessing to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Richard Moody.
Guy Hessing won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Guy Hessing played
80% better than Richard Moody in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Guy Hessing actually played at a level of
1,443 and Richard Moody at a level of
801. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Guy Hessing changes to +8.9% and Richard Moody changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Guy Hessing becomes +5.5% and for Richard Moody becomes -12%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Guy Hessing is +4.2% and for Richard Moody is -8.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Guy Hessing: 69%, Richard Moody: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Guy Hessing: 56%, Richard Moody: 36%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Guy Hessing:
1,216, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Richard Moody:
909, level confidence: 36%.