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Akin Olunloyo v Grant Kleiner (Wed 07 Mar 2012)

Match won by Grant Kleiner. Result: 20-18,13-15,10-15,15-10,13-15.

Starting level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,426, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Grant Kleiner: 1,424, level confidence: 60%.
Akin Olunloyo to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Grant Kleiner.

Grant Kleiner won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grant Kleiner played 8% better than Akin Olunloyo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grant Kleiner actually played at a level of 1,482 and Akin Olunloyo at a level of 1,370. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grant Kleiner changes to +4.1% and Akin Olunloyo changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grant Kleiner becomes +3.1% and for Akin Olunloyo becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Grant Kleiner is +2.3% and for Akin Olunloyo is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grant Kleiner: 77%, Akin Olunloyo: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grant Kleiner: 74%, Akin Olunloyo: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,395, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Grant Kleiner: 1,455, level confidence: 74%.