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Andrew Eilfield v Nick Mulvey (Thu 08 Mar 2012)

Match won by Nick Mulvey. Result: 15-9,12-15,11-15,6-15.

Starting level for Andrew Eilfield: 3,158, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nick Mulvey: 5,819, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Nick Mulvey to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Andrew Eilfield.

Nick Mulvey won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Mulvey played 24% better than Andrew Eilfield in this match.

As Nick Mulvey has played below his allowed range at 4,254, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Mulvey would normally have been playing at level 5,248 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Eilfield played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey changes to -5.5% and Andrew Eilfield changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey becomes -2.4% and for Andrew Eilfield becomes +4.7%.

Given Nick Mulvey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Nick Mulvey is -1.7% and for Andrew Eilfield is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Mulvey: 87%, Andrew Eilfield: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Mulvey: 71%, Andrew Eilfield: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Eilfield: 3,264, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Nick Mulvey: 5,711, level confidence: 71%.