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Andrew Taylor v Will John (Thu 08 Mar 2012)

Match won by Will John. Result: 9-15,8-15,10-15.

Starting level for Andrew Taylor: 1,794, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Will John: 5,351, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Will John to win as he is currently playing 198% better than Andrew Taylor.

Will John won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will John played 67% better than Andrew Taylor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Will John was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,867 and 5,351 without affecting his level.

In this case, Will John played at level 3,482 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Will John would normally have been playing at level 4,055 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will John changes to 0% and Andrew Taylor changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will John becomes 0% and for Andrew Taylor becomes +4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Will John is 0% and for Andrew Taylor is +3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will John: 84%, Andrew Taylor: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will John: 63%, Andrew Taylor: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Taylor: 1,856, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Will John: 5,343, level confidence: 63%.