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Pierre Germishuizen v Adam Bradshaw (Tue 13 Mar 2012)

Match won by Adam Bradshaw. Result: 13-15,5-15,8-15.

Starting level for Pierre Germishuizen: 852, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Bradshaw: 1,107, level confidence: 57%.
Adam Bradshaw to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Pierre Germishuizen.

Adam Bradshaw won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Bradshaw played 73% better than Pierre Germishuizen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Bradshaw actually played at a level of 1,278 and Pierre Germishuizen at a level of 738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Bradshaw changes to +13% and Pierre Germishuizen changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Bradshaw becomes +7.7% and for Pierre Germishuizen becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Adam Bradshaw is +5.8% and for Pierre Germishuizen is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Bradshaw: 75%, Pierre Germishuizen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Bradshaw: 65%, Pierre Germishuizen: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Pierre Germishuizen: 811, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Adam Bradshaw: 1,169, level confidence: 65%.