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Martin Parsall v Mark Castle (Wed 14 Mar 2012)

Match won by Mark Castle. Result: 12-15,10-15,15-9,9-15.

Starting level for Martin Parsall: 772, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Mark Castle: 1,150, level confidence: 65%.
Mark Castle to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Martin Parsall.

Mark Castle won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Castle played 22% better than Martin Parsall in this match.

As Mark Castle has played below his allowed range at 988, his level reduction is 4.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Castle would normally have been playing at level 1,096 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Parsall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Castle changes to -2.7% and Martin Parsall changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Castle becomes -2.5% and for Martin Parsall becomes +4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Mark Castle is -1.9% and for Martin Parsall is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Castle: 81%, Martin Parsall: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Castle: 73%, Martin Parsall: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Parsall: 797, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Mark Castle: 1,127, level confidence: 73%.