Paul Romagnoli v Martin Herd (Wed 14 Mar 2012)
Match won by Paul Romagnoli. Result: 8-15,15-4,15-9,15-6.
Starting level for
Paul Romagnoli:
1,476, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Martin Herd:
1,321, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Paul Romagnoli to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Martin Herd.
Paul Romagnoli won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Romagnoli played
35% better than Martin Herd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Romagnoli actually played at a level of
1,624 and Martin Herd at a level of
1,201. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli changes to +9.4% and Martin Herd changes to -7.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli becomes +5.3% and for Martin Herd becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli is +3.9% and for Martin Herd is -3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Romagnoli: 76%, Martin Herd: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Romagnoli: 69%, Martin Herd: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Romagnoli:
1,532, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Martin Herd:
1,274, level confidence: 76%.