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Andrew Humphries v Andy Gibbs (Tue 20 Mar 2012)

Match won by Andrew Humphries. Result: 15-11,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Andrew Humphries: 951, level confidence: 23%.
Starting level for Andy Gibbs: 1,045, level confidence: 65%.
Andy Gibbs to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Andrew Humphries.

Andrew Humphries won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Humphries played 45% better than Andy Gibbs in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Humphries actually played at a level of 1,202 and Andy Gibbs at a level of 827. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries changes to +25% and Andy Gibbs changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries becomes +13.5% and for Andy Gibbs becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Andrew Humphries is +10.1% and for Andy Gibbs is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Humphries: 48%, Andy Gibbs: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Humphries: 38%, Andy Gibbs: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Humphries: 1,045, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Andy Gibbs: 1,005, level confidence: 64%.