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Chris Marshall v Nick Henderson (Tue 27 Mar 2012)

Match won by Nick Henderson. Result: 15-0,12-15,12-15,15-12,10-15.

Starting level for Chris Marshall: 1,566, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Henderson: 1,602, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nick Henderson to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Chris Marshall.

Nick Henderson won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Henderson played 5% better than Chris Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Henderson actually played at a level of 1,621 and Chris Marshall at a level of 1,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Henderson changes to +1.1% and Chris Marshall changes to -1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Henderson becomes +0.9% and for Chris Marshall becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Nick Henderson is +0.7% and for Chris Marshall is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Henderson: 86%, Chris Marshall: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Henderson: 85%, Chris Marshall: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Marshall: 1,552, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nick Henderson: 1,611, level confidence: 85%.