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Hugh Adams v Ian Collin (Thu 29 Mar 2012)

Match won by Ian Collin. Result: 4-15,5-15,6-15.

Starting level for Hugh Adams: 996, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,914, level confidence: 70%.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Hugh Adams.

Ian Collin won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Collin played 200% better than Hugh Adams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Collin actually played at a level of 2,391 and Hugh Adams at a level of 797. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Collin changes to +11.1% and Hugh Adams changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Collin becomes +5.4% and for Hugh Adams becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Ian Collin is +4% and for Hugh Adams is -7.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Hugh Adams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Collin: 83%, Hugh Adams: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Collin: 67%, Hugh Adams: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hugh Adams: 960, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Ian Collin: 1,989, level confidence: 67%.