Laura Seaman v Nicky Seabrook (Sat 07 Apr 2012)
Match won by Laura Seaman. Result: 15-11,15-11,10-15,15-9.
Starting level for
Laura Seaman:
204, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Nicky Seabrook:
226, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Nicky Seabrook to win as she is currently playing
11% better than Laura Seaman.
Laura Seaman won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laura Seaman played
23% better than Nicky Seabrook in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Laura Seaman actually played at a level of
238 and Nicky Seabrook at a level of
193. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laura Seaman changes to +16% and Nicky Seabrook changes to -9.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laura Seaman becomes +9.3% and for Nicky Seabrook becomes -6.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Laura Seaman is +7% and for Nicky Seabrook is -4.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laura Seaman: 70%, Nicky Seabrook: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laura Seaman: 60%, Nicky Seabrook: 74%.
Final level for Laura Seaman:
218, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Nicky Seabrook:
216, level confidence: 74%.