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Laura Seaman v Nicky Seabrook (Sat 07 Apr 2012)

Match won by Laura Seaman. Result: 15-11,15-11,10-15,15-9.

Starting level for Laura Seaman: 204, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Nicky Seabrook: 226, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Nicky Seabrook to win as she is currently playing 11% better than Laura Seaman.

Laura Seaman won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laura Seaman played 23% better than Nicky Seabrook in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Laura Seaman actually played at a level of 238 and Nicky Seabrook at a level of 193. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laura Seaman changes to +16% and Nicky Seabrook changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laura Seaman becomes +9.3% and for Nicky Seabrook becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Laura Seaman is +7% and for Nicky Seabrook is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laura Seaman: 70%, Nicky Seabrook: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laura Seaman: 60%, Nicky Seabrook: 74%.

Final level for Laura Seaman: 218, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Nicky Seabrook: 216, level confidence: 74%.