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Paula Shepherd v Isobel Smith (Sat 07 Apr 2012)

Match won by Isobel Smith. Result: 8-15,12-15,9-15.

Starting level for Paula Shepherd: 388, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Isobel Smith: 480, level confidence: 66%.
Isobel Smith to win as she is currently playing 24% better than Paula Shepherd.

Isobel Smith won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isobel Smith played 55% better than Paula Shepherd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isobel Smith actually played at a level of 537 and Paula Shepherd at a level of 347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 10.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isobel Smith changes to +8.5% and Paula Shepherd changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isobel Smith becomes +5.7% and for Paula Shepherd becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2011/2012' so the adjustment for Isobel Smith is +4.3% and for Paula Shepherd is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isobel Smith: 81%, Paula Shepherd: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isobel Smith: 72%, Paula Shepherd: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paula Shepherd: 369, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Isobel Smith: 500, level confidence: 72%.