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Anthony Palmer v Dominic Webster (Tue 02 Oct 2012)

Match won by Dominic Webster. Result: 15-9,9-15,13-15,15-13,5-15.

Starting level for Anthony Palmer: 1,629, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,526, level confidence: 61%.
Anthony Palmer to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Dominic Webster.

Dominic Webster won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dominic Webster played 12% better than Anthony Palmer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dominic Webster actually played at a level of 1,668 and Anthony Palmer at a level of 1,491. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dominic Webster changes to +6.3% and Anthony Palmer changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dominic Webster becomes +3.9% and for Anthony Palmer becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Dominic Webster is +2.9% and for Anthony Palmer is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dominic Webster: 78%, Anthony Palmer: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dominic Webster: 72%, Anthony Palmer: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Palmer: 1,569, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,568, level confidence: 72%.