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Andrew Humphries v Paul Drakes (Tue 02 Oct 2012)

Match won by Andrew Humphries. Result: 15-4,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Andrew Humphries: 1,386, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Paul Drakes: 890, level confidence: 64%.
Andrew Humphries to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Paul Drakes.

Andrew Humphries won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Humphries played 125% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Humphries actually played at a level of 1,666 and Paul Drakes at a level of 740. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries changes to +16% and Paul Drakes changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries becomes +8.1% and for Paul Drakes becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Andrew Humphries is +6% and for Paul Drakes is -6.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Humphries: 78%, Paul Drakes: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Humphries: 65%, Paul Drakes: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Humphries: 1,468, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Drakes: 835, level confidence: 67%.