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Tony Revell v Karl Ennis (Tue 02 Oct 2012)

Match won by Tony Revell. Result: 15-11,15-9,10-15,15-11.

Starting level for Tony Revell: 840, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Karl Ennis: 625, level confidence: 65%.
Tony Revell to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Karl Ennis.

Tony Revell won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Revell played 23% better than Karl Ennis in this match.

As Tony Revell has played below his allowed range at 779, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Tony Revell would normally have been playing at level 817 (based on typical behaviour), Karl Ennis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Revell changes to -1% and Karl Ennis changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Revell becomes -1% and for Karl Ennis becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Tony Revell is -0.8% and for Karl Ennis is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Revell: 74%, Karl Ennis: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Revell: 70%, Karl Ennis: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tony Revell: 832, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Karl Ennis: 634, level confidence: 77%.