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Freddie Englander v Tim Seaton (Tue 02 Oct 2012)

Match won by Freddie Englander. Result: 15-8,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Freddie Englander: 1,321, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Tim Seaton: 898, level confidence: 33%.
Freddie Englander to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Tim Seaton.

Freddie Englander won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie Englander played 48% better than Tim Seaton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddie Englander actually played at a level of 1,327 and Tim Seaton at a level of 894. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie Englander changes to +0.4% and Tim Seaton changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie Englander becomes +0.3% and for Tim Seaton becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Freddie Englander is 0% and for Tim Seaton is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie Englander: 32%, Tim Seaton: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie Englander: 31%, Tim Seaton: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Freddie Englander: 1,322, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Tim Seaton: 896, level confidence: 57%.