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Jeff Hobden v Jed Whelan (Wed 10 Oct 2012)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 13-15,18-16,15-3,15-13.

Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,874, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,540, level confidence: 37%.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Jed Whelan.

Jeff Hobden won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 27% better than Jed Whelan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeff Hobden actually played at a level of 1,911 and Jed Whelan at a level of 1,510. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to +1% and Jed Whelan changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes +0.8% and for Jed Whelan becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is +0.6% and for Jed Whelan is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 80%, Jed Whelan: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 78%, Jed Whelan: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,883, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,520, level confidence: 60%.