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Kachinga Kabwe v Peter Iszatt (Thu 11 Oct 2012)

Match won by Kachinga Kabwe. Result: 15-8,15-10,15-5.

Starting level for Kachinga Kabwe: 3,540, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,411, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Kachinga Kabwe to win as he is currently playing 151% better than Peter Iszatt.

Kachinga Kabwe won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kachinga Kabwe played 96% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kachinga Kabwe was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,219 and 3,540 without affecting his level.

In this case, Kachinga Kabwe played at level 2,818 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kachinga Kabwe would normally have been playing at level 2,876 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Iszatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe changes to 0% and Peter Iszatt changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe becomes 0% and for Peter Iszatt becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe is 0% and for Peter Iszatt is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kachinga Kabwe: 83%, Peter Iszatt: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kachinga Kabwe: 74%, Peter Iszatt: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kachinga Kabwe: 3,535, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,420, level confidence: 76%.