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Mike Gregory v Jonathan Maloney (Thu 11 Oct 2012)

Match won by Mike Gregory. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Mike Gregory: 5,827, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jonathan Maloney: 5,429, level confidence: 10%.
Mike Gregory to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Jonathan Maloney.

Mike Gregory won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Gregory played 30% better than Jonathan Maloney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Gregory actually played at a level of 6,412 and Jonathan Maloney at a level of 4,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Gregory changes to +1.2% and Jonathan Maloney changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Gregory becomes +0.7% and for Jonathan Maloney becomes -3.6%.

Given Mike Gregory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jonathan Maloney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Mike Gregory is +0.5% and for Jonathan Maloney is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Gregory: 88%, Jonathan Maloney: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Gregory: 80%, Jonathan Maloney: 29%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Gregory: 5,848, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jonathan Maloney: 5,282, level confidence: 29%.