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Carol Booth v Laura Seaman (Mon 15 Oct 2012)

Match won by Carol Booth. Result: 14-16,12-15,16-14,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Carol Booth: 244, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for Laura Seaman: 218, level confidence: 27%.
Carol Booth to win as she is currently playing 12% better than Laura Seaman.

Carol Booth won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carol Booth played 9% better than Laura Seaman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carol Booth actually played at a level of 241 and Laura Seaman at a level of 221. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carol Booth changes to -1.2% and Laura Seaman changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carol Booth becomes -1.2% and for Laura Seaman becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Carol Booth is -0.9% and for Laura Seaman is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carol Booth: 53%, Laura Seaman: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carol Booth: 52%, Laura Seaman: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carol Booth: 241, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Laura Seaman: 220, level confidence: 51%.