SquashLevels calculations
Fiona McClure v Lara Mann (Mon 15 Oct 2012)
Match won by Fiona McClure. Result: 15-11,15-8,15-7.
Starting level for
Fiona McClure:
257, level confidence: 32%.
Starting level for
Lara Mann:
146, level confidence: 44%.
Fiona McClure to win as she is currently playing
76% better than Lara Mann.
Fiona McClure won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fiona McClure played
73% better than Lara Mann in this match.
In this case, Fiona McClure played at level 253 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lara Mann is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fiona McClure: 57%, Lara Mann: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fiona McClure: 56%, Lara Mann: 66%.
Final level for Fiona McClure:
257, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Lara Mann:
146, level confidence: 66%.