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Joe Green v Pedro Pinto (Thu 18 Oct 2012)

Match won by Joe Green. Result: 9-11,11-3,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Joe Green: 4,956, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Pedro Pinto: 4,372, level confidence: 39%.
Joe Green to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Pedro Pinto.

Joe Green won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Green played 50% better than Pedro Pinto in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Green actually played at a level of 5,696 and Pedro Pinto at a level of 3,804. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Green changes to +9% and Pedro Pinto changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Green becomes +3.5% and for Pedro Pinto becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Joe Green is +2.6% and for Pedro Pinto is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Green: 78%, Pedro Pinto: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Green: 67%, Pedro Pinto: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Green: 5,078, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Pedro Pinto: 4,208, level confidence: 54%.