Amber Marshall v Lara Mann (Mon 05 Nov 2012)
Match won by Amber Marshall. Result: 15-9,17-15,15-11.
Starting level for
Amber Marshall:
170, level confidence: 21%.
Starting level for
Lara Mann:
146, level confidence: 60%.
Amber Marshall to win as she is currently playing
16% better than Lara Mann.
Amber Marshall won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amber Marshall played
41% better than Lara Mann in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Amber Marshall actually played at a level of
187 and Lara Mann at a level of
133. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Amber Marshall changes to +9.3% and Lara Mann changes to -3.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Amber Marshall becomes +6.1% and for Lara Mann becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Amber Marshall is +4.6% and for Lara Mann is -2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amber Marshall: 46%, Lara Mann: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amber Marshall: 42%, Lara Mann: 71%.
Final level for Amber Marshall:
178, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Lara Mann:
143, level confidence: 71%.