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Amber Marshall v Lara Mann (Mon 05 Nov 2012)

Match won by Amber Marshall. Result: 15-9,17-15,15-11.

Starting level for Amber Marshall: 170, level confidence: 21%.
Starting level for Lara Mann: 146, level confidence: 60%.
Amber Marshall to win as she is currently playing 16% better than Lara Mann.

Amber Marshall won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amber Marshall played 41% better than Lara Mann in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Amber Marshall actually played at a level of 187 and Lara Mann at a level of 133. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Amber Marshall changes to +9.3% and Lara Mann changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Amber Marshall becomes +6.1% and for Lara Mann becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Amber Marshall is +4.6% and for Lara Mann is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amber Marshall: 46%, Lara Mann: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amber Marshall: 42%, Lara Mann: 71%.

Final level for Amber Marshall: 178, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Lara Mann: 143, level confidence: 71%.