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Julian Webb v Craig Kirby (Tue 06 Nov 2012)

Match won by Julian Webb. Result: 15-11,14-16,15-10,15-8.

Starting level for Julian Webb: 1,159, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Craig Kirby: 896, level confidence: 69%.
Julian Webb to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Craig Kirby.

Julian Webb won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Webb played 27% better than Craig Kirby in this match.

In this case, Julian Webb played at level 1,138 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Craig Kirby is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Webb: 77%, Craig Kirby: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Webb: 76%, Craig Kirby: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Webb: 1,157, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Craig Kirby: 895, level confidence: 82%.