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Peter Gunter v Kevin Springham (Tue 13 Nov 2012)

Match won by Peter Gunter. Result: 9-15,15-9,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Peter Gunter: 3,837, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kevin Springham: 1,957, level confidence: 55%.
Peter Gunter to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Kevin Springham.

Peter Gunter won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Gunter played 28% better than Kevin Springham in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Gunter was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,901 and 3,837 without affecting his level.

As Peter Gunter has played below his allowed range at 2,699, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Gunter would normally have been playing at level 3,388 (based on typical behaviour), Kevin Springham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Gunter changes to -3.8% and Kevin Springham changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Gunter becomes -2.2% and for Kevin Springham becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Peter Gunter is -1.6% and for Kevin Springham is +4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Gunter: 87%, Kevin Springham: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Gunter: 71%, Kevin Springham: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Gunter: 3,770, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Kevin Springham: 2,034, level confidence: 60%.